Holiday weight gain: how much people really gain and how to avoid it

How much weight do people gain over the holidays?

Less than you might think. A common claim is that Americans gain 5 pounds or more between Thanksgiving and New Year's. When researchers at the National Institutes of Health weighed 195 adults before and after the holidays, the average gain was 0.37 kilograms, a little under a pound.

Other studies land in a similar place. A review of the research put the average gain between mid-November and mid-January at about half a kilogram, roughly a pound. The range is wide, though: some people lose weight over the holidays, and people who already carry extra weight tend to gain more. In a 2019 trial, the group given no advice gained an average of 2.65 kilograms, close to 6 pounds, between Thanksgiving and New Year's.

Why a small holiday gain matters

The problem is not the size of the gain but what happens next. In the NIH study, the pound gained over the holidays was still there when the same people were weighed in late February or March, and again the following September or October. A review of the research concluded that holiday weight is the main contributor to the extra weight adults gain over a year.

In the 2019 trial, the group that gained close to 6 pounds lost some of it by spring, but 14 weeks after New Year's they still carried 57 percent of the gain. Small gains that are never reversed are how weight creeps up over a decade.

Is holiday weight gain fat or water?

Some of each. The morning after a big dinner, the scale can be up a pound or more, mostly from water held with salt and carbohydrate and from food that has not been digested yet. That part fades within a few days of normal eating.

The fat comes from small, steady surpluses. A pound of fat stores roughly 3,500 calories, and the stretch from mid-November to early January is about 50 days. A daily surplus of only 70 calories, about half a medium cookie, adds up to a pound by New Year's. That is why office treats, leftovers and evening snacks matter more than the big dinners.

What actually prevents holiday weight gain

Two randomized trials have tested ways to prevent it, and both came back to the scale. In a UK trial of 272 adults before Christmas, people who weighed themselves regularly, wrote down their weight, got tips for the season and saw how much exercise it takes to burn off festive foods lost 0.13 kilograms on average. The comparison group, given a healthy-living leaflet, gained 0.37 kilograms.

In a US trial of 111 adults, people who weighed themselves every day on a connected scale and looked at a graph of their trend, with the goal of not going above their starting weight, held steady from before Thanksgiving to after New Year's. The comparison group gained 2.65 kilograms, and participants with overweight or obesity in the weighing group lost about 1.5 kilograms.

Neither trial put anyone on a diet. Seeing the trend seems to be enough to prompt small corrections before a pound turns into five. If daily weigh-ins make you anxious, weighing a few mornings a week still shows the trend, and our guide to why the scale goes up in a calorie deficit explains the normal day-to-day swings.

Aim for maintenance, not loss, in December

If you are partway through losing weight, consider pausing the deficit from Thanksgiving to early January. A maintenance target leaves room for the big days, and holding your weight through the season is a better result than most people get. Our guide to moving from a deficit to maintenance shows how to work out the number.

Keep logging at maintenance. A rough log keeps you honest about the small daily extras, which are what turn into holiday weight. If the trend creeps up for two weeks in a row, trim 100 to 200 calories a day until it settles.

Plan the big days and keep ordinary days ordinary

Count the true feast days: Thanksgiving, a couple of parties, a holiday dinner and New Year's Eve. For most people that is five to eight days out of about fifty. Plan those days on purpose, then make sure the rest look like a normal week in October.

• Eat a meal with protein before a party, so you are not making dinner out of the snack table.
• Take one plate and put everything you want on it, instead of grazing.
• Decide how many drinks you will have before you arrive, and log them. Our guide to alcohol and weight loss lists the calories.
• Send leftovers home with guests, or freeze them in single portions.
• Put gifted cookies and chocolates in a cupboard rather than on the counter.

Keep moving when the days get shorter

Step counts often drop in winter, and each 1,000 steps burns roughly 30 to 50 calories, so 3,000 fewer steps a day is worth about 90 to 150 calories. That alone is enough for the slow gain described above.

A short walk after the big meals, or a daily walk at lunchtime while it is light, helps hold your usual count. Our guide on exercise calories explains why steps belong in your activity level rather than your food budget.

What to do in January

Go back to your deficit at a moderate pace rather than crash dieting. If you held steady, you start January where you were in November, ahead of the average. If you gained, the first week back usually takes off some water quickly, and the rest comes off at your normal rate. Simple batch meals help: the lentil soup in the BiteTracker recipe book is about 300 calories and 16 grams of protein a serving.

In BiteTracker, log a morning weight a few times a week and set your calorie goal to maintenance for the season. The trend line and the weekly report make a small creep visible in December, when it is easiest to fix.